SEC Alpha & Risk Dashboard - Rare Event Detection

Two-Stage Analysis: IDF ≥7 Filtering + Sentiment-Based Scoring

Explainable AI: Weighted Average with Diversity Bonus

Total Rare Events
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Positive Signals
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Risk Signals
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Companies Analyzed
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Mixed Signals
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📊 Two-Stage Scoring Methodology

Stage 1: TF-IDF Filtering (IDF ≥ 7)

  • Filter to only rare, high-signal events
  • Examples: dismissed_auditor, upgraded, refinanced
  • Reduces noise: 100k events → 4.5k rare events

Stage 2: Sentiment-Based Scoring

  • Event Weight = sentiment × materiality × timing × confidence
  • Company Score = avg(weights) × diversity_bonus
  • Diversity bonus: 1.0x to 1.5x for multiple event types

🟢 Alpha Opportunities

Companies with rare positive sentiment events

Top - by Alpha Score

# Company Alpha Score Events Types

🔴 Risk Alerts

Companies with rare negative sentiment events

Top - by Risk Score

# Company Risk Score Events Types

🧮 Score Calculation (Fully Explainable)

Step 1: Calculate event weight = sentiment_mult × materiality_mult × timing_mult × confidence_mult
• Sentiment: positive/negative=1.5x, neutral=0.5x
• Materiality: material=2.0x, routine=1.0x
• Timing: definitive=1.5x, announced=1.2x, anticipated=1.0x
• Confidence: 0-10 scale → 0.0-1.0 multiplier
Step 2: avg_weight = average of all event weights (normalizes for event count)
Step 3: diversity_bonus = 1.0 + (unique_event_types - 1) × 0.1, capped at 1.5x
Final Score: avg_weight × diversity_bonus
Example: Company with 3 positive rare events (avg weight=2.8, 2 unique types) → Score = 2.8 × 1.1 = 3.08