MARS · Competitive thesis · 2026-08-04

The one to two year window

Where FactSet, PitchBook, and Bloomberg still spend on people. Where a small team with modern tools can compete.

A ~$30B market for financial data + entity linkage sits on top of a 40-year-old cost structure: armies of analysts hand-mapping tickers, filings, entities, and relationships. That structure is about to be undercut by an order of magnitude — and the incumbents don't turn fast enough to close the gap in the next 12-24 months. MARS is already built on the newer stack. This page is what we have, what they have, what still separates us, and what we build to close the distance.

The market we're in

Not one product category — a stack of them, all sharing the same underlying capability: resolve entities → link filings, deals, people, ownership → serve at query time. Incumbents monetize this across terminals, data APIs, and per-seat dashboards. Public revenue where known; private-company figures are 2024 industry estimates rather than reported.

$12B+
Bloomberg terminal
~350K seats × ~$27K/yr
$7B
Refinitiv / LSEG
Data & analytics division
$4-5B
S&P Market Intelligence
CapIQ + Ratings-adjacent
$2.2B
FactSet
FY2024 · ~11,600 employees
$1B+
PitchBook
Morningstar subsidiary, est.
$1B
ZoomInfo
B2B contact + intent
~$200M
CB Insights + Crunchbase
Private-markets tier, combined
~$30B
Total serviceable ARR
Substrate + terminal + linkage

Even the US private-markets sub-slice (PitchBook + CB Insights + Crunchbase + smaller shops competing under them) is ~$2-4B ARR — an addressable target for a substrate-and-MCP play even before any terminal ambitions.

What they have vs. what we have

Coverage is where they still lead — for now. Cost structure and source velocity are where the shift has already happened. The right column is what the incumbents literally can't touch from where they sit today.

Player Coverage universe People behind data New source velocity Substrate audit Delivery surface
Bloomberg Global public + fixed income depth ~24,000 employees Quarters Black-box, no lineage Terminal + API + Data License
FactSet 400K+ entities public + private ~2,000 analysts, ~11K total 6-18 months Curated, no row-level audit Workstation + API + Portware
PitchBook 3M+ orgs, 25M+ funding rounds ~500 curators + engineers 3-6 months Est. ranges, no methodology tag Dashboard + Excel plugin + API
CB Insights Millions of orgs (VC/PE tilt) ~300 people Weeks to months Some methodology transparency Dashboard + intelligence briefs
MARS 96K real op-cos (+800K SEC substrate + 3.5M foundations + entity graph) 3 people + AI stack Same day to 1 month Row-level: methodology_version + integrity_tier + identity_decisions_v2 reversibility MCP-first + editorial + API

The cost gap is not incremental. FactSet's analyst headcount alone is ~$1 billion/year in fully-loaded labor. Our equivalent-quality entity-resolution decisions cost ~$0-0.08 each on a tiered stack (Qwen at $0, deterministic ladder catches ~60% before any LLM, Grok-web only for genuine world-knowledge disambiguation). Verified on the 12,697-pair pending backlog cleared for ~$35 vs $1,013 projected all-Grok — 29× cheaper than the naive path, ~500-1000× cheaper than an analyst.

Substrate discipline is not something they'll copy quickly. Every MARS row carries a methodology tag, an integrity tier, and a reversible decision log. Their curation systems weren't designed with row-level audit as a first principle — retrofitting it means rebuilding the ingest layer. The 6-18 month source velocity gap is a direct symptom of the same architectural problem.

What we build to close the coverage gap

Kee's steer: things we build, not services we buy. Every item below uses only free public data + our existing AI stack (Qwen on Inferno, Serper/Brave search, Anthropic API for the hard cases). Numbered by rough sequencing but any team member could pick one up in parallel.

Substrate we can add for free

1

International coverage

UK Companies House (free API), EU business registries, India MCA, Canada CBCA. Same ingest shape as Form D — daily bulk + Qwen entity resolution to companies_v2.

intl vertical scaffolded 2026-07 · no owner yet · ~3-4 months to first-country LIVE
2

Historical fundamentals time-series

SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL has decades of machine-readable financial statement history. Free. sections vertical partly does this — needs full statement coverage, not just IPO offerings.

unblocks: FactSet-shaped fundamentals queries, DCF workups
3

Corporate hierarchy (parent / subsidiary)

SEC 10-K Exhibit 21 is the subsidiary list, structured, ~free. companies_v2.parent_company_id partially populated — needs full sweep + Qwen linkage.

unblocks: "roll up to ultimate parent" queries; also the Franken-division fix at scale
4

Fixed income substrate

FINRA TRACE (bonds), EDGAR credit rating actions, private-credit substrate from credit vertical. All free or already ingested.

credit vertical LIVE — extend to bond issuance + Moody's/S&P actions
5

Guidance + estimates substrate

SEC 8-K guidance revisions + earnings PR text + management commentary. signals vertical could own — already has appointment / lawsuit; extend with guidance_change kind.

no incumbent has row-level guidance audit — this is a lead, not a follow

Product surface we can extend

6

Person wealth + contact graph

Form D officers + 990 board seats + Form 4 insider positions + ADV Part 2B bios + FEC donations + property records (deeds vertical, LIVE Phase 1). Combine into one wealth signal per person.

prospects vertical (Raul's ask) scaffolded — 747K persons with contact atoms today
7

Sentiment + event stream (8 remaining categories)

signals owns lawsuit, appointment, bankruptcy today. Wire the 8 remaining classify.py categories: product_announcement, financial_report, license_agreement, government_issues, dividend, auditor_change, contract, guidance.

Qwen extract at ~$0.0003/article — full corpus of 5.67M rows costs ~$1,700 to sweep once
8

Editorial layer at scale

Per-company one-pagers, sector newsletters, "who's raising in X" tickers — all generated from substrate at pennies each. Editorial IS the demo of what MCP consumers can render on demand.

workups + ticker series shipping since 2026-07 · scale via templated per-vertical rollouts
9

MCP tool proliferation

Every substrate table gets an MCP surface. graph_edge_catalog (#316) already makes new bridges instantly traversable — zero argos redeploys. Every new tool = one new AI-native consumer path.

MCP-first product doctrine — this is where all substrate value flows to consumers
10

Premium-press coverage backstop

GDELT under-indexes Bloomberg / WSJ / FT / Reuters. rss vertical has the alt-path (their 5.35M row corpus already). Backstop the coverage gap for the highest-signal press directly, not via GDELT.

rss vertical LIVE — need to prioritize premium-press ingest in their queue

What we deliberately don't build

Real-time market data / prices / greeks (options team territory, we reference their feed). Terminal UI (per MCP-first doctrine — the surface itself is the wrong bet). Paid data licenses (Preqin, RCA, CoStar, etc.). Consumer-facing dashboards competing head-on with PitchBook (that's the sales moat we can't cross; ZoomInfo-space B2B licensing is the smarter play — task #320).

The moment

Small team + modern tools = we compete

The 40-year cost structure of financial data is coming apart. Qwen at ~$0 for in-the-text tasks, Grok-web at pennies for world knowledge, Serper / Brave for entity verification, tier-chain discipline that makes ~500× cost reductions repeatable — this stack didn't exist 18 months ago. It exists now. It'll be table stakes in 24-36 months when Bloomberg's AI team has rebuilt their ingest.

In between: a window where the substrate we've built already runs at incumbent quality on 1/500th the cost, ships new sources 20× faster, and has row-level audit discipline they don't have and can't retrofit quickly. The gap items above are all buildable, all free-data + AI-stack, all sequenceable with the team we have.

We don't need to become FactSet. We need to become the substrate that AI-native consumers reach for — via MCP tools, editorial, and B2B licensing — before the incumbents figure out what to charge for it.